Hawaii Integrated Energy Assessment. Volume III. Projecting Hawaii's Energy Future: Methodology and Results

摘要

This volume describes the assumptions methodologies and models used in the Hawaii Integrated Energy Assessment. The HIEA modeling system is an integrated set of analytic models intended to provide data for quantitative assessment of various energy policy scenarios. The major models used are the Hawaii Energy Demand Forecasting Model (HEDFM), the Supply Optimization Model, the Supply Cost Model, and the Hawaii Input-Output (I-O) Model. Detailed demand forecasts are presented for each county. The structure of the model, the data used in estimating its parameters, and the choice of forecasting equations are described. The forecasts for individual counties and the state as a whole under five combinations of price, demograhic and economic growth, and level of energy conservation are presented. A discussion of the assumptions and limitations of the model and some suggestions for how it might be improved are also included. The supply-demand integration and the analysis of economic impacts are covered. This part is primarily methodological. The structure of the linear program that forms the core of the Supply Optimization Model is described in detail. The feedback between this model and the HEDFM to balance supply and demand is discussed. The procedure for calculating the direct and indirect economic impacts using the Supply Cost Model and the I-O Model are also described. The construction and some of the results of the I-O Model are presented. (ERA citation 07:007652)