Trivariate Model of Wind-Direction Probabilities for WECS Design Application

摘要

The design criteria recommended in the Engineering Handbook on the Atmospheric Environmental Guidelines for Use in Wind Turbine Generator Development (Handbook) (Frost, Long, and Turner 1978) for determining the probability of wind direction are described in detail. The design equations and graphs from the Handbook are compared with the available data. The bivariate directional probability model given in the Handbook underpredicts the measured two-dimensional data; however, when experimental values are used as input to the model, the data correlate with +-6 percent. A trivariate model is developed which provides a prediction of the probability of a three-dimensional data when theoretical inputs are used. With experimental values used as input to the model, agreement of +-6 percent is achieved. (ERA citation 07:053580)