Deterrence of a Nuclear Armed Adversary in a Major Regional Contingency

摘要

AFTER THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION MANY PEOPLE ASSUMED THAT THE THREAT OFNUCLEAR WEAPONS WAS GONE. HOWEVER WITH THE PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY, THE PROBLEM OF A THIRD WORLD ADVERSARY WITH NUCLEAR CAPABILITY IS VERY REAL TODAY. THE JTFC MUST BE PREPARED FOR A CONFRONTATION THAT PUTS HIM UP AGAINST A NUCLEAR ARMED THIRD WORLD BELLIGERENT. HE MUST BE FAMILIAR WITH THE ELEMENTS OF A STRATEGY OF DETERRENCE AND HIS ENEMY'S MOTIVATION TO BE ABLE TO BE EFFECTIVE IN DETERRING THIS ADVERSARY. NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE PROBABLY THE BEST TOOLS FOR DEMONSTRATING SUFFICIENT CAPABILITY TO DETER THE NUCLEAR THREAT. CONVENTIONAL PREEMPTION AND ACTIVE DEFENSE ARE ALSO IMPORTANT PARTS OF THE JTFC'S STRATEGY AND THEY HELP TO BOLSTER THE BASIC DETERRENCE. PLANNING FOR THIS PROBLEM IS VITAL. IF DETERRENCE FAILS THE OPTIONS ARE NOT VERY DESIRABLE AND THE JTFC NEEDS TO ANALYZE THEM IN ADVANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE CONTEXT OF HIS REGION AND HIS ENEMY.