Using the Shipboard Casualty Projection System (SHIPCAS) to Forecast Ship Hitsand Casualty Sustainment

摘要

Medical resource planning for naval combat operations requires projections of thenumbers of casualties that may be incurred by shipboard forces. These casualty projections are required inputs to models that forecast the beds, medical equipment, evacuation assets, and health care personnel needed to support an operation. Because the logistics of shipboard casualty evacuation can be problematic, reliable estimates of the medical resources needed aboard ships are critical to the timely treatment of any battle wounds sustained. At the same time, because shipboard space is a scarce commodity, it is important that allocation of supplies is kept to a minimum. A planning tool called the shipboard casualty projection system (SHIPCAS) has been developed to forecast shipboard casualty incidence. SHIPCAS projections have recently been adjusted to incorporate contemporary threats; the present report outlines use of the SHIPCAS tool and explains the statistical underpinnings upon which the projections are based.