Energy Security in a Time of Plenty

摘要

Energy supply trends are good for Western security. Dependence on the volatile Persian Gulf may increase only slightly, as additional supplies come from stable pro-Western areas, such as Norway and Latin America. Also, the cost of producing oil is dropping thanks to the information revolution. In spite of East Asia's rapid growth, world oil demand is unlikely to grow each year by more than 1.5-2.0 million barrels per day (mbd). East Asian growth is concentrated in industries that use little energy. Oil demand growth in both China and the former Soviet Union will be modest as they shut or modernize energy-wasting heavy industries. Market forces increasingly determine what happens in the energy business, except in the Caspian basin where geopolitical factors will determine whether the region's rich oil and gas resources will be brought to market. An energy security issue for the coming decade will be adjusting to the next energy trade pattern, in which East Asia and the Persian Gulf become more tightly tied-each more reliant on the other.