Role of Confidence in T&E of Strategic Defense Systems.

摘要

Weapon system confidence is being able to predict the system's performance to within a quantified uncertainty (confidence interval). Properly planned test and evaluation of the system allows for models and simulations to be built to predict system performance with confidence. As confidence is important to strategic offensive weapons, it is equally important for defense against strategic warheads. Steps for building in confidence start with specifying the top-level family of systems performance evaluation requirements in terms confidence. These are then 'flowed down' to lower level system/ subsystem performance requirements (confidence) using force on force level simulations. Test programs (test size, instrumentation quality) and analysis methodologies are then designed to meet each lower level requirement. Such a process provides for tradeoffs to be made while quantifying the implications of decisions to test more, or less, to instrument different functions or systems, or to changing the quality of the instrumentation. The fundamental feature of this test and evaluation process is to build models with associated confidence for the family of systems from which credible performance predictions can be made with quantified confidence intervals. This will allow for optimum planning for placement and usage of assets before the action commences as well as optimum real-time threat response. However, a number of 'grand' technical challenges must be faced in order to optimally build in confidence to the ballistic missile defense family of systems.