Forecasting Readiness: Using Regression to Predict the Mission Capability of Air Force F-16 Fighter Aircraft

摘要

According to many, the readiness of America's forces deteriorated in the 1990s. In the Air Force, the combat readiness of its fighter aircraft has declined. One of its indicators of combat readiness, the mission capable rate, is used to identify the percentage of aircraft unable to perform their missions. From FY94-FY98, the aggregate total not mission capable rate for maintenance steadily increased from 14% to 18.2% while total not mission capable rate for supply increased from 5.5% to 17.5% between FY86 and FY00. The USAF uses the funding/Availability Multi-Method Allocator for Spares model to forecast these rates for its aircraft. While FAMMAS does an excellent job of predicting mission capable rates using finding data and other factors, it is does not explain the key drivers influencing mission capable rates, limiting its effectiveness. Studies have identified other variables, manning/experience levels, retention, fix rates, OPSTEMPO, spare parts issues, and aircraft systems reliability and maintainability as influencing mission capable rates. The research used these and other variables, using the F-16 as an example, to develop regression models that provide more insightful forecasts. Results are obtained from analyzing 600+ variables and 10 years of data, from the REMIS, D041, PDS, and HAF MDS systems.