Navy Research Project: A Projection of Moore's Law and Recommended Approaches to Manage and Mitigate Risks

摘要

CAPT Gib Kerr, USN, PMS 435, is currently faced with the challenge of managing the cost and schedule impacts to submarine and surface ship procurements driven by the rapid tun-over of electronic technologies. These impacts include the costs and schedule implications of managing parts obsolescence on high technology Navy systems. This obsolescence occurs as commercial electronics manufacturers replace current component production with newer, more capable products. Navy ships are increasingly composed of complex electronics technology and rely almost totally on the commercial electronics industry for its parts. During the period required to develop and produce a Navy ship and its major systems, the electronic components will have gone through several life cycles, creating a tremendous workload for the ship's prime and subcontractors. Replacing these components over the life of the platform, when those components are no longer available commercially, magnifies the obsolescence impacts. CAPT Kerr specifically asked for students from the Electronics Seminar to study the phenomena of Moore's Law, the industry benchmark for the rate that electronic chip capability advances, and to provide a projection of how long this trend will continue. In addition, he asked the Electronics Seminar to assess the impacts to the commercial world's costs and schedules, and in turn, the cost and schedule impacts to Government systems.