Effects, Targets, and Tools: A Primer for US Strategy and an Application Examining the Security Dynamics of Northeast Asia

摘要

This is the 50th volume in the Occasional Paper series of the United States Air Force Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). For this milestone volume, it is fitting that this paper represents all three pillars of the INSS mission statement. As indicated in the full statement below, the three pillars are quality research, development of a strategic perspective (particularly within the uniformed military), and furtherance of informed discourse on policy issues. Tom Drohan centers his paper on the second pillar, suggesting and developing a framework for use in both teaching and analysis of strategic issues. As the head of the Military Strategic Studies department of the USAFA faculty, Colonel Drohan does great service to that second pillar, defining a tool for his students and others to use in both teaching and seeking that strategist development objective. The paper also fulfills the other two pillars by presenting the framework through its application to the analysis of a critical region's security situation and a timely set of security challenges to that region and to the United States. The regional security assessment of Northeast Asia is comprehensive, and the development of the Korean nuclear challenge within that regional security context allows both broader and deeper understanding of this dangerous situation. INSS applauds both the research and analysis of the region and its challenges, and particularly the effort to further strategy analysis and strategist development. The author applies the Effects, Targets, and Tools (ETT) model to three specific cases: the 1993 North Korean nuclear crisis, the 1998 North Korea multi-stage missile launch over Japan, and the current North Korean nuclear crisis triggered in 2002.