Effects-Based Operations: Simulations With Cellular Automata

摘要

In this report I show how simulations through cellular automata can be used to answer Effects-Based Operations (EBO) related questions. Such simulations provide effective tools to investigate the two themes that lie at the heart of the EBO paradigm which are that (a) the operations be holistic - treat the adversary as a complex system with interconnected political, military, economic and social facets and (b) that the immediate and higher order effects of the actions be gauged and exploited. This report focuses on the effects of actions against an adversary. How to integrate the friendly national capabilities for a whole of government approach has not been discussed here. An effects-based strategy is formulated which is a minimal strategy in the sense that it provides a mode of interdiction whose cascading effects are strong enough to compel the enemy to abandon hostilities while not driving the adversary to a point where its military, and non-military social systems become unstable. The parameters governing this strategy are identified and simulations conducted to elicit the parameter values that produce the desired effects.