National Defense University Topical Symposium, Prospects for Security in the Middle East, Panel 2: Democratization in the Region

摘要

In his classic book on democratization Robert Dahl argues that democracy can occur in authoritarian regimes when there is an increase in both liberalization, such as freedom of association or freedom of expression, and participation like power sharing and meaningful elections. If liberalization alone takes place, the authoritarian regime evolves only into 'competitive oligarchies' which control the country. If participation alone takes place without liberalization, the system becomes only an 'inclusive hegemony'. This model fits the Arab-Persian Gulf monarchies quite well. Today, one could describe Saudi Arabia as a society increasingly composed of 'competitive oligarchies', but it is very far from evolving towards democracy. The Saudi 'oligarchies' are not actually families but are competing social actors: the Salafis, the civil service, the merchants, and large sections of the Royal Family. The senior members of the Royal Family are the only arbiters between the various groups and therefore indispensable group to maintain its position vis a vis the other. In accordance with Dahl's schema, as long as true participation is not added to a slow liberalization of society due to the economic development of the region, one cannot expect much movement towards democratization. This paper will focus mainly on Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. The Saudi evolution toward democratization on is by far the slowest in the Gulf, but to some degree the underlying elements of societal change are present in all the other Gulf monarchies. Certainly the changes created by economic development have been the most dramatic in the Kingdom, and have been accompanied by the slowest improvement in democracy. In Bahrain, liberalization has been more pronounced than in Saudi Arabia, but despite substantial transformation of institutions aping democracies, the increase in participation has not moved one iota.