Asymmetric Fast Transients Applied to Reduce DOD Acquisition Cycle Time

摘要

The need to implement a truly agile military acquisition process is at hand. To this end, an innovative tool the Department of Defense (DoD) should consider to reduce risk and shorten acquisition cycle time is the Performance and Reliability Evaluation with Diverse Information Combination and Tracking (PREDICT) methodology. How can PREDICT make the acquisition process more agile when numerous acquisition reform efforts of significant scope have tried and failed. PREDICT's unique feature is the use of formal elicitation of expert knowledge to calculate concept reliability prior to testing. Statistical analysis of the expert knowledge yields a calculation of reliability and uncertainty of the technology or concept. PREDICT is supporting the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) mission of maintaining and certifying the safety and reliability of nuclear weapons without system testing. For DoD, this could provide an alternative methodology for determining technology readiness levels and risk before launching an acquisition effort. This research will explain the PREDICT process, and show how its application to the DoD acquisition process could provide the following benefits: (1) Shorten the Technology Planning Integrated Process Team (TPIPT) and Modernization Planning processes; (2) Enable the assessment of reliability for new concepts at Milestone A and for legacy systems undergoing change, thus eliminating unproductive paths earlier in the process; (3) Optimize test planning and execution by showing testing impact to reliability; and (4) Enable transfer of knowledge as experienced personnel transition out of programs.