Influence of Politics, Technology, and Asia on the Future of US Missile Defense.

摘要

This paper discusses the United States need for a limited missile- defense system and the political, technical, and diplomatic forces which define the requirements. The end of the Cold War, weapons of mass destruction proliferation, and rise of terrorism challenge the utility of mutually assured destruction. This new context demands renewed consideration of strategic defense with emphasis on the true technical maturity and political costs. Like nuclear weapons, ballistic missile defenses have high political and psychological value that must be evaluated as intensely as the technology. Thus, the US engagement strategy toward Asia must also be informed by an understanding of security relationships, technology, and the unique role of domestic US politics. In the near term, the United States should only pursue a limited ballistic missile-defense system with emphasis on theater systems and countering long-range missiles from the handful of rogue states that are pursuing them. Concurrently, the United States must improve threat definition, demand increased technical maturity and testing, and pursue flexible systems that can perform militarily significant missions in addition to missile defense. Furthermore, engagement with friends and foes is essential to developing an effective missile-defense system, maximizing deterrence value and supporting other critical efforts such as WMD counterproliferation and intelligence gathering. This strategy will reduce the technical risk of missile defense, increase the United States freedom of action against a rising cadre of WMD-capable actors, and avoid unnecessary escalation in tension between the United States and Asia.