Weaponeering the Future: Direct Energy Weapons Effectiveness Now and Tomorrow

摘要

Direct Energy weapons can exist on the battlefield of today, and the warfighter needs to know what Probability of Damage these weapons can attain. Currently, the Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manual calculates a Single Sortie Probability of Damage for conventional Blast and Fragmentation weapons. Using Futures Research methods allows the determination of what effects Direct Energy weapons will impart in the year 2035. The Status of Futures Index (SoFI) method compares complex entities to one another across multiple dimensions. Adapting the Single Sortie Probability of Damage formula for Lasers, Microwave, and Millimeter wave weapons allows a determination of their effectiveness. The required formulas for each type of Direct Energy weapon's Probability of Damage (or Effect) are derived and explained. The Direct Energy weapons are compared to both conventional weapons and one another. Adjusting these probability equations for various inputs enables a forecast of the future capabilities of each weapon. The current trend trajectory establishes a baseline estimate of future Probabilities of Effect. Then, disruptive technologies are analyzed for their effect on the weapon's capabilities. Each type of weapon poses a unique challenge. For Lasers to match the capabilities of Blast/Fragmentation weapons, the power output must be increased. Microwave weapons not only require increases in power, but also advances in antenna technology. Millimeter-wave weapons can currently produce the required power, but manufacturing them proves to be an obstacle. To overcome these difficulties, new technologies must be pursued. The SoFI method allows continuous evaluation of progress toward the goal of effective Direct Energy weapons.