Insurgency Season: The Link between the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Insurgencies in Equatorial Africa; Research paper

摘要

The impact of climatology on an insurgency has received little attention, particularly in the Equatorial region of Africa, where the seasonal north-south shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) creates distinct wet and dry seasons throughout the region. During the wet season, widespread flooding and inclement weather dominate, severely impacting ground mobility and air operations, and severely restricting a government's ability to attack insurgents. During the dry season, the skies are generally clear and ground mobility is good, making counterinsurgency operations feasible. An evaluation of insurgencies that occurred from 1979-2007 in Equatorial Africa, coupled with climatological data of the position of the ITCZ, shows that a definite correlation exists between the relative intensity of conflict within an insurgency and the seasonal shift in the ITCZ. When the ITCZ dominated the region, insurgencies tended to be relatively quiescent. As the ITCZ shifted south, insurgencies had a tendency to intensify. Also linked to this correlation is the historical record of U.S. military deployments to the region in response to the intensified fighting within the insurgencies. The repeating pattern is one of heavy insurgent fighting during the latter half of the dry season (March through May), which in turn precipitates a crisis which the U.S. military is then tasked to respond to. The linkage between the ITCZ and the intensity of an insurgency, in light of the historical pattern of U.S. military deployments to Equatorial Africa, can be used by military planners as a planning tool to better allocate forces and schedule exercises within the AFRICOM theater, such that the U.S. military is poised and prepared to respond to any crisis in the region.