Jordanian National Security and the Future of Middle East Stability

摘要

The United States and Jordan have maintained a valuable and mutually supportive relationship for decades as a result of shared interests in a moderate, prosperous, and stable Middle East. This monograph highlights Jordan's ongoing value as a U.S. ally and considers ways the U.S.-Jordanian alliance might be used to contain and minimize problems of concern to both countries. Although Jordan is not a large country, it is an important geographical crossroads within the Middle East and has been deeply involved in many of the most important events in the region's recent history. Now, the importance of this relationship has increased, and Jordan has emerged as a vital U.S. ally in efforts to stabilize Iraq and resist violent extremism and terrorism throughout the region. Dr. Terrill notes the importance of Jordanian political reform, but also recommends patience, opposing the idea of coercing Jordan on democratization issues while Amman is currently struggling to cope with severe refugee and terrorism problems resulting from the war in Iraq. He devotes considerable attention to threats against Jordan emanating from the ongoing terrorist activity and sectarian warfare in Iraq. Dr. Terrill takes an especially close look at the Jordanian programs to train 50,000 Iraqi police officers as well as Special Operations forces of a variety of friendly Arab countries. The monograph also considers the broader implications for the United States and the region if the Jordanian government is crippled in its ability to function by spillover problems from Iraq. Jordanian differences with Iran, which go back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, also are considered. While such differences are serious and have worsened since 2003, Jordan remains interested in improving its relations with Tehran. On the Israeli-Palestinian front, Amman is seeking ways to calm the West Bank and Gaza Strip and serve as an advocate of Palestinian rights while maintaining normal relations with Israel.