Perspectives from Fragile Crescent: A South Asia Crisis Simulation

摘要

The Obama administration has arguably inherited the toughest national security environment since the end of World War II. Instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan has propelled South Asia to the top of a U.S. national security agenda already crowded with a long list of major problems that includes North Korea, Iran, and Iraq. The political, security, and economic trends in Afghanistan and Pakistan have taken a turn for the worse, as the two countries confront an increasingly violent Taliban-led insurgency and al Qaeda- linked militant jihadist groups. To make matters even worse, Pakistan's relations with India have been damaged by the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks. In February 2009, as national security experts were discussing proposals for U.S. strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, a small group of senior governmental officials from the executive and legislative branches gathered at the National Defense University (NDU) in Washington, DC, to participate in Fragile Crescent, a South Asia crisis simulation exercise. The exercise posed a number of hypothetical scenarios intended to stimulate thinking about current and future challenges in South Asia. The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) Center for Applied Strategic Learning at NDU developed the exercise and hosted the event. This report recaps the highlights of the exercise and discussions among experts.