Assessing the Operational Readiness of Landing Craft Air Cushion Vessels Using Statistical Modeling

摘要

A fleet of 40 Landing Craft Air Cushion (LCAC) vessels is managed by Assault Craft Unit-5 located at Camp Pendleton, CA. LCACs are used to transport weapons systems, equipment, cargo, and personnel of the assault element of the Marine Air/Ground Task Force from ship to shore and across the beach. It is important that the Commanding Officer be able to forecast, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, the number of LCACs that will be available for tasking a fixed number of days in advance. As the LCAC fleet ages its time in maintenance increases, which in turn increases the uncertainty of achieving availability targets. This thesis examines factors that contribute to the availability of LCACs on a daily basis. Using logistic regression, a forecast model is developed from past data on availability and maintenance that has a prediction standard error of approximately two to three craft. The model can be used not only to forecast the number of available LCACs, but also to assist in planning and scheduling to better manage availability.