A method is developed for computing the probability that an air attack will penetrate a point defense made by a surface-to-air missile system. Analytic expressions are obtained from a model for the probability of penetration by at least one of k attackers, as a function of k and of the spacing between successive attackers, the number of shots that can be made at an approaching attacker, and the single-shot kill probability of the defensive missiles. The model is initially formed in terms of a constant spacing between attackers, but modifications are found that permit a generalization to obtain results for any spacing between attackers. The mean number of attackers required for penetration can be approximated very closely by a formula that is valid throughout the range of tactical interest. The number of attackers required to saturate the defensive capabilities and thus to ensure penetration is shown to be only slightly greater than the mean.
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