Poland: National Autonomy or Soviet Invasion. An Analysis of Political and Economic Upheaval in Poland, 1956, 1970, and 1976, and Prospects for the Future.

摘要

The eruption of violence in Poland since the Second World War has twice resulted in massive changes in the Polish leadership. At least one of those changeovers occurred in the face of Soviet threats to intervene militarily. As recently as 1976, violence again threatened the stability of the Communist Party of Poland, indicating that the dangers of upheaval are still very much present in that strategically important East European state. This study analyzes developments in post-war Poland, with particular emphasis on the turbulent events of 1956, 1970, and 1976, and develops prospects for Poland's future vis-a-vis the Soviet Union. More specifically, the conclusion evaluates the conditions under which a future Soviet military intervention in the manner of the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia can be expected, as well as how the Poles might establish a very high degree of national autonomy and independence without such an invasion. (Author)