Expected Value Errors in Kill Probability Formulas in Strategic Missile Targeting.

摘要

This report examines the incorrect uses of expected values in kill probability calculations that exist in some strategic targeting articles and models. Generally stated, the type of error is the incorrect use of expected numbers of weapons in probability calculations in place of numbers of weapons that are actually random variables. The most common example found was the use of the expected number of reliable missiles or warheads in kill probability calculations for silo targets. In Chapter II, the results of a general literature search are given. These results are in the form of classifying various strategic targeting models. In Chapter III, a simple missile allocation problem is examined and a possible expected value error is discussed. In Chpater IV, a specific example of an expected value error is discussed. The author offers a corrected formula and numerically compares the differences based on data values for present and projected U.S. and Soviet arsenals. Then the author offers a general kill probability formula for silo targets; the formula is general enough to include mixed types of multiple-warhead missiles.