Probability Distribution of Impact for a Satellite Booster After Loss of Control

摘要

The impact area and regions of high impact probability after booster failure were found for a sample space system. The impact footprints were found to be drop-shaped. They increased in size as the residual velocity vector elevation approached the original flight path, or when the booster failure was assumed earlier in the boost trajectory. Probability densities at impact were found, and plotted against the longitude of impact. Singularities in the probability density were discovered. The singularities correspond to areas of high impact probability, and occur when a maximum latitude or longitude is obtained at a fixed residual velocity vector azimuth or elevation. These singularities were plotted along the impact envelopes. A sample failing booster system was used to demonstrate the impact area and probability characteristics. (Author)