Stochastic Aircraft Availability Sensitivity Model (SAASY Model). (A Probabialistic Technique to Translate DO41 Recoverable Spares Data into Aircraft Availability Forecasts.

摘要

There currently exists a variety of aircraft spares requirement calculation methods. All of these techniques are limited because their measure of effectiveness (expected backorders) does not translate to terms of aircraft availability. The most logical measure of effectiveness for the logistics system is the number of aircraft that can be supported in an operationally ready state for a given level of flying activity. There are several models that use aircraft availability as a measure of effectiveness. One of these models is extremely detailed and comprehensive, but bulky and costly to run, and therefore, not convenient for a variety of quick turn around what if questions. Another model parovides a quick reaction capability, but is oversimplified in some areas. Therefore, the need existed to develop a quick reaction model that addresses all or most of the major variables in the aircraft availability problem. The SAASY model,. which is the focus of this paper, attempts to provide a stochastic technique that translates a given stock position to the number of aircraft expected to be in an operationally ready status, at least not NMCS. The model has been programmed on the AFLC CREATE computer system and is being used on an experimental basis.