A System Dynamics Model for Assessing the Cost-Effectiveness of USAF Engineering Officer Compensation Policies

摘要

This study formulates a methodology for evaluating alternative proposals to alleviate the Air Force's Development Engineering (28XX) officer shortage. Compensation was selected as the decision variable from 18 factors related to engineering officer career intent. A compendium of pertinent studies reviewed was also provided. The 28XX officer response to the most recent Air Force Quality of Life Survey indicate that salary has substantial influence on career motivation. The value, or productive capacity of the 28XX officer force was assumed to be a function of the numbers of Lieutenants, Captains, and Field Grade Officers assigned. Data elicited from an experienced Development Engineering officer were fit to a second-order polynomial using stepwise regression to provide an approximate ordinal indicator of relative productive capacity. A System Dynamics model was constructed to provide force and cost projections based upon exogeneous inputs of the future demand for engineers and salary policies. The model's accession and retention rates respond positively to increases in the ratio of future expected military pay to future expected civilian pay. Uses of the model were illustrated, but more extensive validation and parameter estimation is required before the model can be used with confidence in formulating policies. (Author)