An Accuracy Analysis of the Army Materiel System Analysis Activity Reliability Growth Model

摘要

In this paper, a statistical model known as the AMSAA reliability growth model, is evaluated by measuring how well it tracks various reliability growth patterns. These patterns are defined by specified sequences of failure rates. Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate test data based on a time-terminated test plan. Estimates of failure rates, computed using the AMSAA model, are compared with the specified failure rates. Results for 18 reliability growth patterns are presented in both tabular and graphical form. Four modifications in the use of the model are discussed with selected results of their application presented. (Author)