Lifetime Prediction for Satellites in Low-Inclination Transfer Orbits

摘要

A geostationary satellite usually reaches its final circular orbit via a transfer orbit having apogee height near 36000 km and perigee height less than 600 km. The population of discarded rockets left in these transfer orbits is steadily increasing (there are now more than a hundred), and their likely lifetimes are usually assesed after lengthy numerical integrations to evaluate lunisolar perturbations. This paper gives a simple analytical method for predicting the lifetimes when the orbital inclination is between 20 deg and 30 deg, as often happens. Several approximations are made, but the errors should not exceed those from other sources. (Author)