Interrelationship of Personnel Losses, Promotions, Tour Lengths, and Navy Manning

摘要

The objective of this report is to document efforts to develop and verify the theoretical interrelationships of losses, promotions, and tour lengths and their impact on Navy manning by pay grade and duty type. Theoretical models were developed for rotation, average tour length, and manning. Cohort analysis using longitudinal data for the boiler technician (BT) rating was applied to verify the theory. Cohorts were defined as populations entering either a new pay grade or duty type. Results showed that two major cohorts--promotions-in and rotations-in--for a pay grade/duty type have significantly different survival behavior patterns and comprise unequal proportions of manning. Average tour length was verified to be a function of assigned tour length and the continuation rate. Sea tour lengths longer than 3 years did not increase sea manning at the pay grade for which the tour was assigned but did impact sea manning at the next higher pay grade. Results clearly indicate that any sea-shore rotation model must include the effects of promotions and losses. (Author)