Estimating Excess Personal Property Receipts in the Defense Property Disposal Service

摘要

The Defense Property Disposal Service (DPDS) needs an improved capability to forecast future receipts of excess personal property. This report assists DPDS in developing such a capability by reviewing the factors that affect turn-ins of excess personal property by DoD Components, identifying a data base to support forecasts of receipt activity, and proposing a statistical approach for forecasting future receipts. Some of the factors that have recently contributed to reduced receipts of excess personal property include inventory managers holding items if they have any foreseeable use and retail-level inventory managers delaying stockage of items until demand patterns are established. Practices which have somewhat offset the decline in receipts include Service quarters conversion programs that have generated an abnormal amount of excess furniture and sporadic purges of personal property inventories by the Services. The DD 1143 Report provides extensive data at a level of detail necessary to understand the trends in disposal activity and to develop a data base for forecasting future receipts.