Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism.

摘要

This monograph presents, assesses, and improves a conceptual model dealing with public support of insurgency and terrorism. It builds on an earlier RAND study that reviewed social science for counterterrorism and introduced conceptual factor tree models to integrate knowledge, improve coherence of discussion, and take a modest step toward relatively general theory. The present study extends the scope to insurgency and incorporates insights stimulated by social movement theory, which add a dynamic dimension relating to the purposeful methods, i.e., stratagems, by which insurgents stimulate and maintain support. Much of the monograph describes lessons learned from assessing the validity of early versions of our model against empirical information from Afghanistan, Turkey, Nepal, and the cross-national aspects of al-Qaida. Broad features of the initial model held up well, but the empirical work motivated refinements. As expected, the salience of the conceptual model s various factors varied markedly with case. That is, the conceptual model is intended to be rather general, identifying possible specific factors for and causal pathways to public support. In applications to a particular context, such as our cases, the conceptual model is merely a starting point indicating what to look for. Only some of the general factors will be salient, which allows useful narrowing albeit with recognition that which factors are important may change with time as the result of insurgent and counterinsurgent strategy, as well as changes of circumstances. The last part of our study uses a generic model of persuasive communication, based on a rich scholarly literature, to relate our conceptual model of public support for insurgency and terrorism to broad suggestions about strategy in overlapping domains referred to variously as public diplomacy, strategic communication, and influence operations.