Arms Transfers: A System Dynamics Analysis Focusing on Regional Stability

摘要

The process of conventional arms transfers, whether it be through outright grant, military aid programs, or sales on the open market has become and integral part of the world political process. Motives espoused for arms transfer actions follow three primary lines; strategic interest, internal influence/political, and economic advantage. Actors in this process may be categorized by level of function as international, national, subnational, or transnational players. The interweaving of actors and motives in the world arms transfer process are a part of a complex and dynamic system. A model is advanced that assesses stability by comparing rates of change of underlying cultural structures with rates of change in embodied technology. The model hypothesizes that arms transfers into a national/regional system may induce increase in instability if the transfer induces additional change in the technology sector. A mathematical representation of the model using DYNAMO computer code, is used to explore specific arms transfer policy effects in central South America.