Economic Analysis of Army Enlistment Supply

摘要

This document addresses methodological problems involved with modelling enlistment behavior, and develops an econometric forecasting model. Previous time-series forecasting models have been subject to a variety of problems including incomplete specification of lag structures, and model misspecification. These problems are discussed and corrected in this model. Unemployment, military compensation, and recruiters all appear to influence enlistment rates, and are incorporated into a model used to generate enlistment forecasts through 1990. The results indicate that the economic recovery and the declining youth population have already led to a fall in the number of high-quality male recruits, and the shortfall is expected to become worse over time. If military compensation and recruiting resources are held constant, and the economy continues to improve, the number of GSM 1-3A recruits may fall short of goals by 40 percent or more by 1990. However, the model also demonstrated that timely recruiting policies may countervail these negative influences.