Analytical Methodology for Predicting Repair Time Distributions of Advanced Technology Aircraft

摘要

Classical probability theory is applied to analytically combine known or hypothesized subsystem reliability distribution for repair time of an advanced technology aircraft. While repair time of a weapon system is determined by a complex interaction of many factors, the relatively high reliability predicted for advanced technology aircraft justifies several simplifying assumptions which permit an analytical approach. The applicability of the analytical method is examined by comparing analytical repair time distributions with distributions produced by Monte Carlo simulation. Using the Advanced Tactical Fighter as an example, comparisons are performed over a wide range of relevant factors. Overall aircraft reliability emerges as the single critical factor determining the applicability of the method. A simple model is presentd for translating the aircraft repair time distribution into measures of aircraft operational effectiveness (availability and sortie generation rate) under a specified concept of operations. The translation model demonstrates how the analytical method for forming a repair time distribution could be used to heuristically determine how to best allocate a reliability and maintainability 'budget' to various subsystems as an aircraft design is developed. Keywords: Theses; Military aircraft; Fortran; Computer programs. (Author)