Mark III Scenario Agent: A Rule-Based Model of Third-Country Behavior in Superpower Crises and Conflict

摘要

This note describes the third-generation, or Mark III version of Scenario Agent, the Rand Strategy Assessment Center's (RASC) rule-based computer model of third-country political-military behavior in conflicts involving one or both superpowers. The national actors modeled by Scenario Agent (1) acquire data from the rest of the RSAC system which are used in defining their situation, (2) evaluate the data according to rules defining their assumed national decisionmaking styles, and (3) produce responses which are model's output to the RSAC system. An actor modeled by Scenario Agent integrates this information into a world view with three elements: (1) the extent to which it perceives itself threatened by its political-military environment, (2) how effectively it can cope with the threat, and (3) any superpower requests for the actor's cooperation or involvement. Each actor's behavior is characterized along three dimensions: (1) the extent to which it cooperates with its superpower ally, (2) the extent to which it involves its own armed forces, and (3) the extent to which the actor independently uses its military assets. (Author)