Military Hydrology; Report 13: Comparative Evaluation of Dam-Breach Flood Forecasting Methods

摘要

Several alternative dam-breach flood forecasting models are evaluated and compared based upon (a) consideration of he underlying concepts and theory incorporated into the models; (b) findings reported in the published and unpublished literature with respect to application, testing, evaluation, and comparison of various models; and (c) results obtained and experience gained in applying the models to several case study data sets. The objective is to provide an assessment of the state of the art of dam-breach flood forecasting which can serve as a basis for selecting and adapting specific models for military use. The comparative evaluation focused on the following leading dam-breach flood wave model which are representive of the current state of the art: DAMBRK, FLOW SIM 1, FLOW SIM2, HEC-1,SMPDBK, TR 66, and the HEC dimensionless graph procedure. A set of dam-breach flood forecasting methods developed during the 1950's and early 1960's were also reviewed, as was the recently developed Military Hydrology Model (MILHY). Although MILHY is a rainfall-runoff model with no special features for dam-breach modeling, a breach simulation routine could be added. DAMBRK and SMPDBK were determined to be the optimal models for military application.