Nuclear Challenges in Southeast Asia: Promoting Cooperation and Consensus.

摘要

This report summarizes the presentations, discussion, and findings of the Second Southeast Asia Strategic Dialogue held in Christchurch, New Zealand, on 15-17 February 2011. This workshop, the second in a series, was intended to assess emerging trends in Southeast Asia that may increase the probability of nuclear proliferation in previously unanticipated ways. In particular, it was intended to gauge Southeast Asian perceptions and understandings of these trends, including the possibly widespread use of nuclear energy amid growing strategic uncertainty in the region. Because these trends are emerging ones, and their potential interactions are complex, the conveners purposely selected participants with expertise in a wide range of scientific and policy fields related to nuclear energy, nonproliferation, and regional security. Participants were drawn from all major countries in Southeast Asia, as well as Australia, India, New Zealand, and the United States. About half of the participants took part in a previous workshop, held in 2009, so the discussions that took place during this workshop represent the continuation of a dialogue that began over a year earlier. In both workshops, participants assessed Southeast Asian nuclear programs and nonproliferation policies. However, the 2011 meeting considered a set of issues that the 2009 meeting had identified for further discussion: the impact of great power rivalry on Southeast Asia, and the relevance to the region of international efforts to address nuclear proliferation, security, and disarmament. Findings are presented from the following workshop sessions: Nuclear Power Plans in Southeast Asia, Nuclear Dangers, Great Power Rivalry and Regional Security, Dealing with WMD Challenges, Prospects for Cooperation -- International Initiatives, Prospects for Cooperation -- Regional Initiatives, and Concluding Session -- Key Findings and Questions for the Future.