Comparison of Deterministic Lot Sizing Techniques Using Focum Forecasts of Stochastic Demand Data.

摘要

A basic concern of any organization which manages production or inventory is the question 'How much', i.e., how much to produce or how much inventory (inventory) to order. It is a very easy question to ask but not quite as easy to answer. The difficulty stems from the nature of 'consumer' demand. Specifically, future demand is seldom known with any degree of certainty. Anticipated demand is determined as best as possible using any one of a multitude of forecasting techniques and only then 'plugged' into a production lot size heuristic. Most research in this area has concentrated on developing and/or modifying production lot size heuristics in the hopes of providing the next best thing, i.e., the 'least wrong' answer. The result has been quite an array of techniques varying in both size (complexity) and scope. The problem left to industry is one of choice. Which heuristic is best. Several studies have been performed in an effort to answer this question as well. Chapter II provides a review of the literature on basic lot sizing techniques and their application to stochastic demand. Material covering the lot size algorithms and forecast models used in this study is presented in Chapters III and IV, respectively. Keywords: Mathematical models, Exponential smoothing. (aw)