Scandinavian NATO Policy: The Next Five Years

摘要

Based on reports from the Foreign Broadcast Information Service, this Noteassesses the future of Danish and Norwegian security policies and the probable internal and external factors that will influence them. In the next five years, Danish politics will be marked by instability as rapid disarmament and tension reduction are pursued. The somewhat more stable Norwegian political environment is also entering a period of uncertainty. However, the weakening of centrism in Norwegian politics should not undermine a traditional concern for arms control and reduced tensions in Europe. While neither Scandinavian nation is expected to take a leading role in the NATO policy debate, they will make clear their opposition to the modernization or expansion of nuclear forces. Although both Norway and Denmark may turn their attention increasingly toward regional or Nordic solutions, the importance of their sea-lanes to U.S. maritime interests will ensure a continued U.S. commitment to maintaining some form of security relationship with them.