Preliminary Analysis of German Arms Transfer Rationales.

摘要

This study is an initial, country-level, analysis of the German government rationales for allowing the transfer of arms. The study divides arms transfer rationales into three distinct areas, political, economic and military. At present, there are no indications the German government is selling/transferring arms for military reasons. Political rationales for transferring arms include international stature, national pride and influence. The political rationale is expressed in declaratory foreign, defense and industrial policy. The evolution of theses policies, and their results, provides a perspective for future actions. The German government is starting to express an independent foreign and defense policy for the first time in the postwar era. This independence will figure in the decision to sell arms in the future although there is no evidence of present influence. Economic rationales common to European countries include employment, lower unit costs (economies of scale), and arms-for-oil. Aggregate analysis of general trends in arms transfers indicates a positive correlation between arms transfers indicates a positive correlation between arms transfers and exports suggesting economic rationales as a factor in weapons sales. Additionally, with the tremendous costs involved in the unification, coupled with an ever increasing demand for quality weapons, the German government may be tempted to alleviate economic problems with these sales.