Current Soviet Views of Ballistic Missile Defenses; A Strategic Red Team Item ofInterest

摘要

Recently, a series of articles appeared in the Soviet press discussing new and,in some cases, radical proposals for changing the structure, mission, and forces of Soviet strategic defenses, including ballistic missile defense (BMD). Because of the potential impact of the Soviet position on BMD on the Strategic Defense Initiative program, the Strategic Red Team analyzed this discussion in light of traditional Soviet military thought and the on-going debate over defense sufficiency. Conclusion None of the proposed alternatives to official policy regarding BMD that are being debated in the USSR has garnered sufficient authoritative support to have caused an identifiable shift in Soviet policy. Based on the majority of recent articles and some statements by officials, it appears that if the Soviets decide to move toward expanded BMD capabilities, their preference will be for revision of the ABM Treaty to permit additional BMD sites and ground-based interceptors. The extent to which additional defensive capabilities and characteristics--such as space basing--might ultimately be negotiable cannot be determined from available evidence.