Tainted Victory: The Bureaucratic Politics of the INF Negotiations.

摘要

The Reagan Administration produced one arms control agreement with the Soviet Union, the Treaty on Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces. The INF agreement eliminated an entire class of weapons, just as the United States had proposed when negotiations began in 1981. Signature of the treaty was the centerpiece of the Washington Summit in December 1987 - - a triumph for the President and the United States. Or was it. The Rational Actor Model If we consider states as rational actors, the treaty looks like a great success. In the 1970's, the Soviets had started to deploy a new missile - - the SS-20 - - with three nuclear warheads that could strike anywhere in Europe. West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt warned in 1977 that NATO needed to respond to this new threat. His concern was that the SS-20 could 'de-couple' the American strategic nuclear deterrent from the defense of Europe. The Soviets could strike Europe with the 55-20, facing the United States with a difficult choice. It could either do nothing or invite attack on the United States by retaliating with long-range strategic systems.