Methodology for Model Comparison Using the Theater Simulation of AirbaseResources and All Mobile Tactical Air Force Models

摘要

This research compares the Theater Simulation of Airbase Resources (TSAR) modelto the sortie generation (SORGEN) module of the AH Mobile Tactical Air Force (AMTAF) model, qualitatively and quantitatively, while concurrently developing and proving a model co methodology. The qualitative analysis compares the models' background and documentation, features and databases, and useability. The quantitative analysis statistically compares the models' estimates of sorties generated. For the quantitative study, eight variables are chosen and assigned high and low values for use in a 2' 1/4 fractional factorial experimental design. Equivalent input databases are developed from a TSAR F-15C database and pilot trials are run to test the factor levels and assess variability. Finally, 64 experimental trials are run and paired differences of the results are tested to determine the statistical equivalence of the models. Results reveal notable differences in the models, both qualitative and quantitative. Further research is needed to analyze the quantitative differences. The qualitative differences are believed due primarily to differences in the models' designed fidelity. The methodology developed provides a functional framework for model comparison and is improved for use in future research.