Nuclear-Survivability Cost Analysis Using Fuzzy-Set Theory

摘要

To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of the nuclear survivability of weaponsystems, one needs to evaluate and compare different proposed system modifications. That task can require the evaluation of a large number of options and the processing of vague information. This report describes a pilot computer program that has been developed to assist the decision maker in such tasks. The program treats vague information using the formalism of fuzzy set theory and provides the decision maker with a set of best options according to criteria specified by the user. The purpose of the pilot program was to develop and test numerical methods for the treatment of vague data for this application and to establish the feasibility of the general approach for the analysis of survivability. It was found that fuzzy set theory can be used to assist cost-effectiveness analysis of nuclear survivability and that the approach taken in the pilot program can be used with minor modifications in the development of full scale utility programs. Cost operational effectiveness analysis, Fuzzy sets, Nuclear survivability, Nuclear hardening, Cost analysis.