Trends in Commercial Off-the-Shelf Computer Equipment Prices

摘要

Two phenomena occur simultaneously in the computer and electronics industries:(1) average prices decrease over time, and (2) average performance increases over time. This paper, presents an analysis of the trends in commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) computer prices. For cost estimates of programs with future procurement of hardware, it is necessary to account for decreasing average cost and increasing average performance of COTS computer equipment. In this study, we developed forecasting equations for price trends in nominal (then-year) and real (constant-year) dollars; both industry-average and hedonic (quality-adjusted) computer price trends are reported. The nature of a particular estimate will determine whether it is appropriate to deflate COTS computer prices according to industry-average trends, which will allow for growth in performance, or to deflate according to quality-adjusted trends, which will freeze the performance baseline.