ARL-TR-7954 - Assessing Consequential Scenarios in a Complex Operational Environment Using Agent-Based Simulation | U.S. Army Research Laboratory

摘要

In an operational environment characterized by interactive complexity, emergence, and near constant change, this report examines whether agent-based or game-theoretic capability can improve the military decision-making process by providing additional rigor, speed, or flexibility during tactical US Army wargaming. The report considers methodologies to improve analysis of the human domain, identifies frameworks for modeling such a capability, and compares them against current Army wargaming practices. The report is composed of 5 sections: State of Wargaming, Agent-Based Modeling in Tactical Wargaming, Modeling Humanâ??Computer Decision-Making, Existing Research and Applied Development of Agent-Based Modeling, and Plan for Research Development, Technology, and Training. The report concludes with a recommended technology and research path for the Army.