Dynamics of Climate Change, Drought and Migration: A Mixed Method Research in Ningxia

摘要

Western China is typically sensitive to climate change and ecologically fragile. It also has large numbers of people living in poverty, and it is a hot spot for emigration. This paper takes the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR) as a case and, employing a mixed-method research combining exploratory research and confirmatory research where quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis are made, conducts an empirical study on the dynamics of climate change impacts on migration. Firstly, this paper identified the fragile characteristics of different types of migrant groups (including policy-facilitated migrants, voluntary migrants and economic migrants) in the context of climate change; secondly, based on confirmatory factor analysis, this paper conducted climate change vulnerability assessment at county level, and explored several common potential factors affecting the regional fragility of climate change in Ningxia, include: climate capacity, social and economic development level, human capital, transportation infrastructure, and education level, etc. The result shows that the climate capacity factor accounts for 37.5 of contribution to regional climate change vulnerability. This paper justified that lacking climate capacity in long-term climate change is the major driving factor of climate-induced poverty and migration in the middle and south Ningxia. Based on a DPISR model, this paper developed a theoretical framework with its core concept “climate capacity”. Within this analytical framework, a series of indicators on climate capacity and climate-induced poverty were suggested to assess climate change related migration risks, which can support local migration planning in Ningxia and other western China areas.