Assessing the probability of El Nio-related weather and climate anomalies in Russian regions

摘要

The risk and predictability of weather and climate anomalies in Russian regions associated with differen types of El Nio are estimated using long-term data (1891-2015) on surface air temperature, precipitation, and indices of drought and excessive moisture. The probability of anomalies of these parameters in spring and summer months is estimated for different phase transitions of El Nio events.