Using the Kriging Response Surface Method for the Estimation of Failure Values of Carbon-Fibre-Epoxy Subsea Composite Flowlines under the Influence of Stochastic Processes

摘要

This paper investigates the use of the Kriging response surface method to estimate failurevalues in carbon-fibre-epoxy composite flow-lines under the influence of stochastic processes. A casestudy of a 125 mm flow-line was investigated. The maximum stress, Tsai-Wu and Hashin failurecriteria was used to assess the burst design under combined loading with axial forces, torsion andbending moments. An extensive set of measured values was generated using Monte Carlo simulationand used as the base case population to which the results from the response surfaces was compared.The response surfaces were evaluated in detail in their ability to reproduce the statistical moments,probability and cumulative distributions and failure values at low probabilities of failure. In addition,the optimisation of the response surface calculation was investigated in terms of reducing the numberof input parameters and size of the response surface. Finally, a decision chart that can be used tobuild a response surface to calculate failures in a carbon fibre-epoxy-composite (CFEC) flow-linewas proposed based on the findings obtained. The results show that the response surface method issuitable and can calculate failure values close to that calculated using a large set of measured values.The results from this paper provide an analytical framework for identifying the principal designparameters, response surface generation, and failure prediction for CFEC flow-lines.