Forecasting Cases of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Using the Backpropagation, Gaussians and Support-Vector Machine Methods

摘要

Dengue disease has been known to the people of Indonesia since 1779. The Aedes mosquito has two types, namely Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Aedes aegypti is a mosquito that carries the dengue virus. The dengue fever cases in Bali province tend to increase from year to year, especially when approaching the rainy season. The government's preventive action is needed to tackle the spread of the dengue virus and casualties. Data mining attempts to extract known knowledge or use historical data to find regularity patterns and relationships in a set of data. In this study, data mining predicts the number of dengue cases in Bali's province. The prediction uses several database variables to predict future variables' values, which are not currently known. The process of estimating predictive values ​​based on patterns in a data set. This forecasting aims to assist the government in predicting dengue fever cases in the coming period to prepare appropriate prevention efforts. Forecasting dengue fever cases are carried out using three methods: backpropagation, gaussians, and support-vector machine. The amount of data used was 528 sample data, from 2008 to 2018. The results obtained are that the backpropagation method is better at predicting dengue fever cases with a MAPE error rate of 0.025. Simultaneously, the gaussian method has a MAPE error rate of 0.035, and support-vector machine has a MAPE error rate of 0.060.