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Typhoon disaster in China: prediction, prevention, and mitigation

机译:中国台风灾害:预测,预防和缓解

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摘要

Typhoon-induced disaster is one of the most important factors influencing the economic development and more than 250 million in China. In view of the existing state of typhoon disaster prediction, prevention, and mitigation, this paper proposes a new probability model, Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD), to predict typhoon-induced extreme disaster events. This model establishes prevention criteria for coastal areas, offshore structures, and estuarine cities, and provides an appropriate mitigation scheme for disaster risk management and decision-making.
机译:台风灾害是影响经济发展的最重要因素之一,在中国超过2.5亿。鉴于台风灾害的预测,预防和缓解的现状,本文提出了一种新的概率模型,即多元复合极值分布(MCEVD),以预测台风引发的极端灾害事件。该模型为沿海地区,近海建筑和河口城市建立了预防标准,并为灾害风险管理和决策提供了适当的缓解方案。

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