The state of land subsidence and prediction approaches due to groundwater withdrawal in China

摘要

This article gives a general introduction to land subsidence with the prediction approaches due to withdrawal of groundwater in three subsided/subsiding regions in China: the- deltaic plain of Yangtse River (YRDP), North China Plain (NCP), and FenweiPlain (FP). On YRDP, Shanghai is the typical subsided/subsiding city; on NCP Tianjin is the typical subsided/subsiding city, and on FP Taiyuan is the typical subsided/subsiding city. The subsided area with subsidence over 200 mm on YRDP is about 10,000 km~2 and the maximum subsided value reached 2.9 m at Shanghai; on NCP the subsided area reached 60,000 km~2 with the maximum subsidence of 3.9 m at Tianjing; on FP the subsided area is relatively smaller than that on the other two plains and is about 1,135 km~2 with maximum subsidence of 3.7 m at Taiyuan city. In order to protect the civil and industrial facilities, it is necessary to predict the future development of land subsidence based on present state. Many researchers proposed several approaches topredict the land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal according to different geological conditions and groundwater withdrawal practice. This article classifies these approaches into five categories: (i) statistical methods; (ii) ID numerical method;(iii) quasi-3D seepage model; (iv) 3D seepage model; (v) fully coupled 3D model. In China, the former four categories are presently employed in the prediction practice and their merits and demerits are discussed. According to the prediction practice, 3Dseepage model is the best method presently.